Written by Matt Goldberg 

My prediction skills are awful.  If there's an antithesis to the crystal ball, that's where I glean the future.  But it's a lazy Saturday afternoon and rather than go out and enjoy the day, I thought my time would better be spent grousing and being wildly inaccurate.  Plus I was reading EW's predictions for the nominees in the major categories and I think they're off in some categories.

So let's run the list and then see how wondrously wrong I was on January 22nd when the nominations are announced.

BEST PICTURE

Right now, I think the two locks are No Country for Old Men and There Will Be Blood.  They have the critical steam to push through and No Country is an awards machine.  Right now, I'd say it's easily the front-runner for Best Picture which is absolutely fine by me.

As for the other three slots, one will probably go to Atonement because the Academy feeds off my pure hatred of shitty decisions.  I've seen the film twice now and it's shit.  Yes, the Dunkirk scene is very pretty.  Other than that, it's easily the most over-rated film of the year.  It's this year's Crash.

Another slot will go to Juno because it's the "indie darling".  Don't get me wrong: I thoroughly enjoy the film (also seen twice) and I don't object to its inclusion.  It's just kind of amusing that Fox Searchlight marketed it as this year's Little Miss Sunshine as if no one picked up on the implication that it means Oscar nominations.  But with critical praise and strong box office, expect the nod.

The fifth slot is the tough one because it's either going to go to Michael Clayton or Into the Wild.  Even though actors comprise the largest bloc of Academy voters and they nominated Into the Wild for Best Ensemble but not Michael Clayton, I think that Wild just doesn't have as much love as the enjoyable-but-challenging Clayton.

Atonement

Juno

Michael Clayton

No Country for Old Men

There Will Be Blood

Don't count out: Into the Wild

BEST ACTOR

Daniel Day-Lewis is the lock in this category and the front-runner to win.  But what about the other four nominees?  Clooney's probably a safe bet as are Ryan Gosling and to a lesser extent Viggo Mortensen.  I'd like to think that Emile Hirsch will grab a nomination because he's too good to ignore, even if you don't like his character.  However, no one ever went broke underestimating the Academy and while some may think it's a long shot, I think they'll nominate Denzel Washington simply because he's gotten to the point where they like nominating (we call this Meryl Streep-syndrome).

Daniel Day-Lewis - There Will Be Blood

Denzel Washington - American Gangster

George Clooney - Michael Clayton

Ryan Gosling - Lars and the Real Girl

Viggo Mortensen - Eastern Promises

Don't Count Out: Emile Hirsh - Into the Wild

BEST ACTRESS

The lock here is Julie Christie because A) she's a Hollywood veteran; and B) she's playing a woman with Alzheimer's.  This is Oscar-bait of the highest form and that's just sad because there are better performances than hers.  Thankfully, at least they'll get recognized. 

You have Marion Cotillard for La Vie En Rose and Ellen Page for Juno as other locks for nominations.  Angelina Jolie probably primal screamed her way to a nod and the Academy always likes throwing a little credit to Hollywood's biggest stars.

So who gets the last slot?  Laura Linney for The Savages?  Helena Bonham Carter for Sweeney Todd?  My money is on Amy Adams for Enchanted.  She's the most delightful and the film has both box office and critical success with plenty of notices for her performance.

Amy Adams - Enchanted

Angelina Jolie - A Mighty Heart

Ellen Page - Juno

Julie Christie - Away From Her

Marion Cotillard - La Vie En Rose

Don't Count Out: Laura Linney - The Savages

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

There are two guys who already have their seats reserved: Casey Affleck for The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford and Javier Bardem for No Country for Old Men.

But they may not win because I'm guessing another nomination will go to Hal Holbrook for Into the Wild.  I've always felt that the Best Supporting Actor category should be called the Old Man award.  Don't believe me?  Okay, here are the winners since 2000: Michael Caine, Benecio Del Toro, Jim Broadbent, Chris Cooper, Tim Robbins, Morgan Freeman, George Clooney, Forest Whitaker.  With the exception of Del Toro and Clooney, all of these actors could be classified as Hollywood veterans.  We can apply this same rule to Tom Wilkinson as well.

The final category is close between Tommy Lee Jones for No Country and Philip Seymour Hoffman for Charlie Wilson's War.  I'm going to give the edge to Jones because part of what makes front runners the front runner is that they get a lot of nominations.  The Academy may want to recognize Hoffman for turning in three great performances this year, but Charlie Wilson's War just didn't make enough of a critical or box office smash to get him in there.

Casey Affleck - The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford Hal Holbrook - Into the Wild Javier Bardem - No Country for Old Men Tom Wilkinson - Michael Clayton Tommy Lee Jones - No Country for Old Men

Don't Count Out: Philip Seymour Hoffman - Charlie Wilson's War

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

The two sure-fires in this category are Cate Blanchett for I'm Not There and Amy Ryan for Gone Baby Gone.

I'd also bet that Saoirse Ronan will get a nod for her work in Atonement, which doesn't bother me too much since she actually has to give a performance while James McAvoy and Keira Knightley just had to look longingly at each other.

And while it's a much riskier wager, I'll bet that Vanessa Redgrave gets a nomination as a way to honor her career rather than for her ten minutes of screen time.

Strangely, I should have more confidence in nominations for Tilda Swinton and Catherine Keener but for some reason, I'm only giving them 60% likelihood. I guess because neither is really a stand-out performance so how do you measure it against other non-stand-out performances?

Amy Ryan - Gone Baby Gone

Cate Blanchett - I'm Not There

Catherine Keener - Into the Wild

Tilda Swinton - Michael Clayton

Vanessa Redgrave - Atonement

Don't Count Out: Ruby Dee - American Gangster

BEST DIRECTOR

I'm just going to go with the DGA's nominees.  The directors almost always line up with the Best Picture nominees with maybe one deviation. 

That being said, this is a very tough year.  One deviation is going to be Julian Schnabel for The Diving Bell and the Butterfly in place of Jason Reitman for Juno.  I would also wager that Gilroy will switch out with Sean Penn and that Wright will trade with Ridley Scott for American Gangster (although admittedly the trade-out with Wright is far less likely than the trade out of Gilroy for Penn).

Joel Coen and Ethan Coen - No Country for Old Men Julian Schnabel - The Diving Bell and the Butterfly Paul Thomas Anderson - There Will Be Blood Ridley Scott - American Gangster Sean Penn - Into the Wild

Don't Count Out: Joe Wright - Atonement